Nokia 3210 – it was the indestructible phone. It embodied exactly what Nokia stood for: resilience, innovation, quality.
We often don’t talk about what follows success: arrogance, complacence.
If it can happen to Nokia, it can happen to you too.
When an organization becomes successful, it doesn’t just fight against its competitors; it fights against itself.
Outcome bias: we assume that good results always come from superior performance.
Newcastle United – 50,000 die-hard supporters flock to stadium. Billionaire owner. 2011-12 finished 5th in table. Their leaders thought this was the start of a brand new era. 2012-2013 finished 16th. Nothing changed. How could that drop happen in less than 12 months?
The league table never lies! When the season ends, justice prevails. It is not that simple.
Brightest guys in football don’t work for football clubs. They work for gambling.
Bredford FC – Matthew Benham
Bought FC Midtjylland. They ended up beating Manchester United.
One idea of Benham: league table always lies! It is a random game. Only average 2.8 goals. The fewer goals in a game, the greater effect random has.
Gamblers look at Goal Differential. Newcastle in 2011-2012 was +5. Gamblers look at Shot Differential. Newcastle was -1.4. Papiss Cisse converted 33% of his shots. Messi only converted 20%.
Why did Newcastle not see all this? They were blinded by outcome bias.
Success turns luck into genius. When an organization fails, we ask tough questions. When an organization has success, we often don’t ask those questions.
Lego – made 30,000 sets of Police Stations. They were missing a crucial brick. Lego only heard back from 2%.
We must listen to everyone that complains. They represent a larger group.
Never trust success. Treat success like failure.
Lack of urgency: we hesitate
Bekoji, Ethiopia – produced athletes that are incredible distance runners. With only 17,000 people.
35% of world’s best golfers are from South Korea. Sweden produces some of the best alpine skiers.
What’s the secret for these landmines of talent?
The Gold Mine Effect.
Jamaica: best sprinters in the world. There must be something in the water. There is very weak data for genetic differentiation. Some attribute to yams. The best sprinters came from MVP Track & Field club just outside Kingston, Jamaica. Mr Stephen Francis – head coach. “A performance center must be designed with work in mind, not comfort.”
Who cares the most? Who wants it the most? Sometimes comfort becomes more important than improvement.
How do we create discomfort so that we keep moving forward?
Jorgen Vig Knudstorp – CEO of LEGO. “Are you that sure that we are competing in the toy industry?” Which industry are we actually competing in?
Coke did the same thing and asked what if we are competing not just for soda but all liquids that go into the body.
